Miller said that wholesale fertilizer prices in the U.S. for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers could bounce back from current lows in the spring, but nowhere near the previous price peaks.

The amount fertilizer prices could come back depends on several factors, Miller said.

“Price prospects for commodities produced in the United States; the price of corn between now and when the crop is in the ground; declining fertilizer prices, which would stimulate demand are all factors that will affect the price of fertilizer,” Miller said. “Also, nitrogen prices at New Orleans have returned to levels that would bring natural gas prices into play once again as a major potential factor in the marketplace for nitrogen fertilizers.”

New Orleans is the main entry point for fertilizer into North America.

Natural gas prices have been relatively low recently, and increasing gas prices could lead to higher nitrogen prices, especially if the remainder of this winter were to be colder than normal, Miller said.

He said other factors that could influence the price would be an improvement in the U.S. economy, which could stimulate demand for fertilizers, and if major potash producers in Canada made a public announcement indicating they would curtail potash production to reduce the supply to match the demand and ultimately try to prop up prices this spring.